Staring at the Future from the Top of the Slippery Slide
Economics, Global Warming/Climate Change, peak oil — by Craig Mackintosh
The IEA World Energy Outlook reports get more accurate every year - by 2030 it’ll be spot on.
Disclaimer: As the title should indicate, don’t read this post if you’re of a delicate disposition.
The International Energy Agency has just released the latest incarnation of its annual ‘World Energy Outlook‘ report - the 2008 edition. Please stand for a moment of mock-reverence.
Thank you. Please be seated.
For those not familiar, the IEA releases an annual report, making reasonably detailed projections of expected energy supplies and demands for the nations of the world. It breaks these total energy forecasts down into its various sources (oil, coal, natural gas, renewables, etc.), and looks at expected economic growth trends for different countries and sectors and their impacts on energy consumption. The last several editions have covered the period from publication to the year 2030, and they have also factored in a few different scenarios to roughly cover policy changes that could occur throughout the period to give policymakers an idea of potential outcomes.
It is certainly a worthwhile endeavour - you could say critical, actually. If only they did it well.
Comments (3)Posted on: November 17, 2008
The ‘Dangerous Threshold’ - a Destination, or a Milestone?
Global Warming/Climate Change — by Craig Mackintosh
I’ve often expressed my concern (here & here for example) that scientists, and, in particular, the politicians that have the greatest power to incentivise change in the world, have been rather arbitrary in settling on a politically correct (read - economically barely palatable) target of reining in the world’s emissions just shy of 450 parts per million (ppm: that’s 450 parts of CO2 for every million parts of atmosphere). 450 ppm would be a 60% increase in CO2 concentration over pre-industrial levels (approx. 280 ppm), and this was accepted by many — even if uncomfortably in some quarters — as the point where we would hit the red zone on our climate system’s tachometer.
Posted on: November 15, 2008
The Food Crisis: “A Perfect Storm” - and How to Turn the Tide
Biodiversity, Consumerism, Economics, Food Shortages, GMOs, Global Warming/Climate Change, Health & Disease, Population, Society, Soil Erosion & Contamination, Water Contaminaton — by Craig Mackintosh
A recently released study, the largest of its kind, examines the root causes of, and solutions for, a food crisis that will likely get much worse before it gets better — and that will never get better if we continue with business as usual
I’m hungry.
No, not because I don’t have enough food to eat, but because I’m too busy typing and too lazy to walk to the refrigerator. How I wish it were this simple for the people I keep reading about.
Comments (3)Posted on: November 14, 2008
Powering Down - Will We?
Consumerism, Economics, Food Shortages, Global Warming/Climate Change, Population, Society, peak oil — by Craig Mackintosh
 Most underestimate the implications… |
Through our Hollywood-tinted glasses we’re accustomed to happy endings. The instinctive “it won’t happen to me” mentality is alive and well, but, whilst perhaps preserving the comfortable status quo (if not our sanity), it does little to promote objectivity. In a world threatened by global warming, potential constructive accomplishments are thus too often hampered and bogged down in the realm of discourse and debate.
In plain English - we need to get real.
On this note, check out the following clip. Richard Heinburg, the author of the book “Powering Down“, has much to say on possible strategies, or failing that, outcomes, for our post peak-oil world. I think it’s time we really examine, not just computer climate models - but societal projections.
Comments (0)Posted on: November 12, 2008
Exodus
Biodiversity, Comedy Break, Global Warming/Climate Change, Society — by Marc Roberts
 Click for larger view Courtesy: Throbgoblins |
Whilst the newly elected president of the Maldives brings up the massive issue of the resettlement of whole nations due to sea level rise, the UK panics over a more imaginary inundation, and limits non-EU immigration to ballet dancers and sheep-shearers. The Dutch, meanwhile, - in their great tradition of physical nation building - plan to build a hydro electric island in the north sea. The basking shark, amongst others, begins its long goodbye.
Comments (0)Posted on:
New Beginnings?
Alternatives to Political Systems, Consumerism, Economics, Global Warming/Climate Change, Society — by Craig Mackintosh
 Click for larger view Courtesy: Throbgoblins |
I don’t blame old Cantankerous Frank here (at right) for getting all excited. Everyone likes to hope - and there’s nothing like a perceived new beginning to get people all agitated in a positive way, ready to pick up the ‘ol load again, and trudge forward, excitedly, into a golden new age.
For myself, half of my relief over the election was just as much that McCain didn’t get in as it was knowing that Obama will step into the Oval Office in January. The thought of just more of the same old Bush mentality was more than I could stand (I mean - really - how did he get in that second time around? Okay, let’s not go there).
And, now it’s down to Mr. Obama - a man who is the smack-dab centre target of more expectations than Santa ever was. Boy has Obama got his work cut out for him. If there was ever a great big pile of doggie do left on someone’s desk, it is this end-of-term.
Comments (1)Posted on: November 6, 2008
Letters from Vietnam: Hanoi, or Venice?
Global Warming/Climate Change — by Craig Mackintosh
Downtown Hanoi - on a Bad Day
Photos: Craig Mackintosh
I wasn’t supposed to be writing about this. Actually, I’m not even supposed to be here.
Comments (3)Posted on: November 1, 2008
Escaping the Matrix - Lifestyles Without Limits
Consumerism, Global Warming/Climate Change, Society, peak oil — by Craig Mackintosh
How many of you remember having to share the bath water with your siblings? A few baby boomers may get nostalgic here, but younger ones will laugh, or shreak “eewww!”.
For us in the North, long gone are the days of little Johnny going in last, the days of gathering wood and doing your best to make it last the winter, the days of cold mornings and dimly lit rooms. Frugality has given way to frivolity, conservation to carelessness. For decades our collective psyche has looked to infinity and beyond. We’ve lived lifestyles without limits.
Last century the phrase ‘The Great American Dream’ was coined. Our dream was to live the rags to riches story, to be whatever we wanted to be, to reach for the stars. It was a pleasant fiction, and some of us even got to live it. Just some.
Comments (1)Posted on: October 30, 2008
Five Ways to Save the World
Global Warming/Climate Change — by Craig Mackintosh
The BBC has aired a 1-hour documentary entitled ‘Five Ways to Save the World’. It features five specialised viewpoints on how we might cool the world through human management of the ecosystem. It would be interesting to get your thoughts on this topic.
Duration: 59minutes
Comments (3)Posted on: October 29, 2008
The Rise and Predictable Fall of Globalized Industrial Agriculture
Conservation, Consumerism, Economics, Food Shortages, Global Warming/Climate Change, Population, Soil Conservation, peak oil — by Craig Mackintosh
Today I’d like to introduce you to a (well written and beautifully presented) report, titled - ‘The Rise and Predictable Fall of Globalized Industrial Agriculture‘ (55 page, 2.4mb PDF). The title says it all. Should you be concerned? Yes.
Your concern, however, should not be that the globalised industrial agribusiness model will collapse - this is not only inevitable, but also necessary, and, might I add, desirable - the focus should instead be on when and how it will fall.
Let me explain.
If you were to ask the Average Joe what is the largest contributor to global warming, many will say cars, trucks and aeroplanes - or coal fired power plants. While these are large contributors, they cannot compete with the largest, yet mostly overlooked contribution from our present system of farming and global food trading. Global warming is primarily due to agriculture. Indeed, much of the above-stated contributors are merely essential aspects in maintaining the globalised agricultural model:
Comments (0)Posted on: October 27, 2008
Learning from the Past
Biodiversity, Consumerism, Economics, Food Shortages, Global Warming/Climate Change, Population, Society, Soil Erosion & Contamination — by Earth Policy Institute
by Lester R. Brown, Earth Policy Institute, Washington D.C., U.S.A.
Our twenty-first century global civilization is not the first to face the prospect of environmentally induced economic decline. The question is how we will respond. We do have one unique asset at our command–an archeological record that shows us what happened to earlier civilizations that got into environmental trouble and failed to respond.
As Jared Diamond points out in his book Collapse, some of the early societies that were in environmental trouble were able to change their ways in time to avoid decline and collapse. Six centuries ago, for example, Icelanders realized that overgrazing on their grass-covered highlands was leading to extensive soil loss from the inherently thin soils of the region. Rather than lose the grasslands and face economic decline, farmers joined together to determine how many sheep the highlands could sustain and then allocated quotas among themselves, thus preserving their grasslands and avoiding what Garrett Hardin later termed the “tragedy of the commons.”
Comments (0)Posted on: October 25, 2008
Rising Seas and Powerful Storms Threaten Global Security
Global Warming/Climate Change — by Earth Policy Institute
by Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute
Standing before the United Nations General Assembly in October 1987, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, President of the Maldives, made an appeal representing “an endangered nation.” That year for the first time, “unusual high waves” in the Indian Ocean inundated a quarter of the urban area on the capital island of Male’, flooded farms, and washed away reclaimed land. Gayoom cited scientific evidence that human activities were releasing greenhouse gases that warm the planet, ultimately raising global sea level as glaciers melt and warmer water expands. The trouble extended beyond small islands; studies showed that rising seas would wreak havoc on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the Netherlands, and the river deltas of Egypt and Bangladesh.
Posted on: October 14, 2008
Can Permaculture Save the World???
Alternatives to Political Systems, Bio-regional Organisations, Biodiversity, Consumerism, Eco-Villages, Economics, Financial Management, Food Shortages, Global Warming/Climate Change, People Systems, Population, Soil Erosion & Contamination, Village Development, Water Contaminaton, peak oil — by Ted Trainer
Editor’s Note: Point one - this article is circa 1998, from the now ceased-publication Permaculture International Journal. Point two - it is now more relevant than ever, so please read and ponder. The article goes a long way towards explaining why I mix articles the way I do - some about Permaculture, some about current events, the global situation, and the desperate need for systemic social, political and economic change.
Ted Trainer argues that although the planet cannot be saved without Permaculture, not enough people in the movement realise where Permaculture fits into the solution.
We are fast approaching a period of enormous and probably chaotic change. Western industrial-affluent-consumer society is unsustainable and is rapidly running into serious difficulties.
Permaculture is a crucial component of the solution to the global predicament. However I want to argue that Permaculture is far from sufficient, and indeed that it can be counter-productive if it is not put in the right context. That is unless we are careful, promoting Permaculture can actually help to reinforce our existing unsustainable society. We must do much more than just contribute to the spread of Permaculture. We must locate Permaculture within a wider campaign of radical social change. Before I try to explain this, I need to outline how I see the global predicament we are in. Whether or not you will agree with my conclusions about what needs to be done and where Permaculture fits in will depend greatly on whether you share my view of the situation we are in.
Comments (4)Posted on: October 2, 2008
Trees Giving Up Battle, But Sustainable Farming Offers Hope
Food Forests, Food Plants - Annual, Food Plants - Perennial, Global Warming/Climate Change, Plant Systems, Rehabilitation, Trees — by Craig Mackintosh
The silver bullet solution to climate change in many people’s book is to simply ‘plant a tree’. A recent study indicates that it might not be quite that simple…
Comments (2)The ability of forests to soak up man-made carbon dioxide is weakening, according to an analysis of two decades of data from more than 30 sites in the frozen north.
The finding published today is crucial, because it means that more of the CO2 we release will end up affecting the climate in the atmosphere rather than being safely locked away in trees or soil.
The results may partly explain recent studies suggesting that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing faster than expected. If higher temperatures mean less carbon is soaked up by plants and microbes, global warming will accelerate.
Posted on: October 1, 2008
Criminal Mastermind
Global Warming/Climate Change — by Marc Roberts
Click for full view
Courtesy: Throbgoblins
Al Gore announces his incredulity at the lack of non violent direct action from the young in the face of global corporate inertia. Judging by some of the woefully misguided responses from the Right, you’d think he’s advocated ritual kitten-disemboweling on the Whitehouse lawn.
Wouldn’t it be grand if some high profile, well respected and experienced mainstream American politician could be found to lead the way into some actual, law-breaking, jail-time civil disobedience? If only there was someone like that somewhere….hmmm
Comments (0)
